🐻The Bear Cave #42🐻

New Activist Reports, Exposing a $1 Billion+ Company, Newsletters to Follow, Tweets of the Week

Nov 30, 2020

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New Activist Reports

Citron Research published a long thesis on MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR — $2.51 billion), a business software company that owns roughly $700 million of Bitcoin. Citron highlighted that MicroStrategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, was one of the first to realize bitcoin’s potential and that the company will continue to invest in Bitcoin. Citron wrote,

“If bitcoin goes to $0, MSTR’s core business alone is still worth more than its current market price BUT if bitcoin trades to $50K, MSTR could be worth $700.”

Citron also tweeted critically about Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR — $48.2 billion), a data analytics company and recent IPO.

Citron Research @CitronResearch

What a run the past month for all. But as traders looking for short exposure, $PLTR is no longer a stock but a full casino. Does not take a ball of crystal to know this will fall back to Arda. Shorting with a $20 2020 target

Best Finance Newsletters to Follow

In honor of Thanksgiving, below are the email newsletters I am most thankful for.

Marginal Ideas

This pseudonymous newsletter comes out about every four months and highlights potential shorts, typically with market capitalizations below $1 billion. The analysis is sharp and always a fun read. Best of all, the newsletter is completely free.

In July the newsletter highlighted Hall of Fame Resort & Entertainment (NASDAQ: HOFV — $67.8 million) as a potential short. Shares are down 75% since.

Join the newsletter here and follow the author on Twitter @marginalidea

NonGAAP

A former activist investor is writing about corporate governance and activist situations. For example, on November 13th the author highlighted HD Supply (NASDAQ: HDS — $9.05 billion) as a likely acquisition target and wrote,

“the stock isn’t appropriately pricing in the possibility a transaction may happen sooner rather than later… The next 30 days should be interesting.”

Three days later HD Supply was acquired by Home Depot at a 25% premium.

The majority of NonGAAP content is for paying subscribers ($35 per month or $300 per year). Here is one of my favorite free posts about board governance and SPACs.

This newsletter is perfect for active equity investors or governance enthusiasts. Sign up here and follow @NonGaap on Twitter.

PETITION

PETITION provides analysis, commentary and curated links about restructuring and bankruptcy. Twice a week, PETITION discusses disruption from the vantage point of the disrupted.

The newsletter’s paid tier is $49 per month or $499 per year, but about one in four of the newsletter editions are available for free subscribers.

This newsletter is perfect for distressed debt investors and anyone involved in the bankruptcy process. Join the newsletter here and follow @petition on Twitter.

The Diff

The Diff is a daily newsletter covering inflection points in finance and technology. The most recent newsletter discussed topics like media disintermediation and Amazon’s PR tactics.

The newsletter’s author, Byrne Hobart, is wicked smart and the newsletter costs $20/month or $220/year.

Learn more here and follow @ByrneHobart on Twitter.

The Dig

The Dig is a newsletter by independent investigative reporter Francine McKenna that highlights auditor issues, legal settlements, questionable IPOs, SEC comment letters, and other forms of corporate malfeasance.

Check the newsletter out here and follow the author on Twitter @retheauditors

Exposing a $1 Billion+ Company

On Thursday, The Bear Cave will expose a multi-billion-dollar company that I believe is worth near zero. The report will be available exclusively to paid subscribers.

For $34/month paid subscribers get two deep-dive reports that highlight public companies with serious issues being misunderstood by the market.

If you have not already, join 100s of investors, short-sellers, and journalists who subscribe to the Bear Cave paid newsletter with the link below.

Learn more about The Bear Cave premium here.

What to Read

“American Medical Association? BITFD!” (Epsilon Theory)

“The AMA is not a charitable organization. The AMA is not an educational organization. The AMA is a tax-exempt hedge fund and licensing corporation.”

“Former Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh Dies at 46 From Injuries Connected to House Fire” (WSJ)

“Mr. Hsieh, who had a passion for llamas and alpacas, had a pet alpaca named Marley and dog Blizzy. He lived in an Airstream trailer, part of a village of tiny homes in downtown Las Vegas that also was part of his vision and became known as Llamapolis.”

“Texas Attorney General’s Legal Woes Potentially Hinder Google Case” (WSJ)

“The accusations against Mr. Paxton center on his relationship with the Austin real-estate investor Nate Paul, a friend and donor to Mr. Paxton. Mr. Paul donated $25,000 to Mr. Paxton’s re-election campaign in 2018.”

Related: Read about Nate Paul’s ties to Robert Smith of Vista Equity Partners here.