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The Bear Cave #83
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The Bear Cave #83

New Activist Reports, Recent Resignations, Tweets of the Week

Edwin Dorsey
Sep 19, 2021
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Welcome to The Bear Cave — your weekly source of short-seller news. If you are new, you can join here. Please hit the heart button if you like today’s newsletter and reply with any feedback.


New Activist Reports

Scorpion Capital published a 158-slide presentation on Berkeley Lights (NASDAQ: BLI — $1.82 billion), a digital cell biology company that went public in July 2020 and sells a $2 million cell sorting and analysis machine. Scorpion Capital conducted 24 research interviews with former employees and scientists from the company’s largest customers and found they did not trust the machine’s data and that the company would likely need to cut prices 50-80%. Scorpion Capital said Berkeley Lights “stands out for the number of nonsensical phrases, newly-invented words, and drivel it uses to describe itself.”

The company trades at 27x revenue despite flat revenues over the last four quarters and is down 60% since its July 2020 IPO. The company’s response was, in part:

“The report from Scorpion, a self-proclaimed short seller, contains highly misleading statements, groundless claims and a clear lack of industry understanding. It’s important to note that Scorpion never reached out to us prior to the publication of their report. We believe the sole purpose of the report was to serve the short seller’s interests at the expense of Berkeley Lights shareholders.”

Citron Research published bullishly on The RealReal (NASDAQ: REAL — $1.27 billion), an online and brick-and-mortar luxury resale company for clothes and jewelry. Citron argued the company was disrupting the high-end resale industry and could become “the Carvana of luxury” or be acquired by eBay. Citron highlighted that the demand and supply for the luxury resale market have grown during the pandemic and RealReal has an edge over competitors because of its customer data and strong authentication procedures.  

Muddy Waters Research published on Danimer Scientific Inc (NYSE: DNMR — $1.63 billion), a biotech company that is trying to make degradable plastics. Muddy Waters claimed that Danimer misled investors about partnerships with brands like Mars and PepsiCo and that those partnerships may not produce revenue for years, if at all. Muddy Waters also said the company was “amateurish on production” and wrote, “DNMR claims its TAM is approximately $1 trillion, which probably qualifies DNMR for the TAM Exaggeration Hall of Fame.”

ShadowFall, a subscription-based activist short firm, published on Civitas Social Housing PLC (LON: CSH – GBP622 million), a British REIT. ShadowFall highlighted five related-party deals where the company did not properly disclose the conflicts of interest.

Nigh Market Research published an update on Cielo Waste Solutions, (TSX: CMC — CAD$477 million), a trash-based renewable energy company. Night Market Research alleged the company is 80% below its production level guidance and has 90% downside.

IP Hawk has started to highlight paid stock promotions in his free newsletter and recently highlighted one concerning Biotricity (NASDAQ: BTCY — $150 million). Check it out here.


Recent Resignations

Notable executive departures disclosed in the past week include:

  1. CFO of Scientific Games (NASDAQ: SGMS — $7.37 billion) resigned after one and a half years on the job. The company has had five different CEOs and four different CFOs in the last ten years.

  2. CFO of International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF — $34.4 billion) resigned after a little under two years.

  3. CFO of Huazhu Group (NASDAQ: HTHT — $15.19 billion) resigned “for personal reasons” after a little under two years.

  4. COO of Dexcom (NASDAQ: DXCM — $54.5 billion) resigned after six months “in order to pursue another employment opportunity.”

  5. COO, CTO, and CMO of Casper Sleep (NYSE: CSPR — $204 million) were all laid off amid a business restructuring. They were hired in 2019 and 2020.

Data for this section is provided by InsiderScore.com


What to Read

“Wall Street Influencers Are Making $500,000, Topping Even Bankers” (Bloomberg)

“Hankwitz charges anywhere from $4,500 to $8,000 per post on his TikTok page. He said Fundrise, a real estate investment platform, pays him every month to post two videos on his TikTok, and also offers him a monthly bonus of as much as $2,000 based on how many people he pushes to the platform.”

“'Concerned Citizen' At Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes' Trial Turns Out To Be Family” (NPR)

“While the courtroom drama then centered on which 12 Californians would form the jury that decides Holmes' fate, journalists in the courtroom had other burning questions: Who was this man? Why was he talking so much to all the reporters? Did he have a connection to Holmes he wasn't disclosing?”

“SEC Charges App Annie and its Founder with Securities Fraud” (SEC Enforcement)

“The order further finds that App Annie and Schmitt misrepresented to their trading firm customers that App Annie generated the estimates in a way that was consistent with the consents it obtained from companies that shared their confidential data, and that App Annie had effective internal controls to prevent the misuse of confidential data and to ensure that it was in compliance with the federal securities laws.”


Tweets of the Week

Twitter avatar for @ScorpionFundScorpion Capital @ScorpionFund
Performance of every short we've published on from last close prior to publication through 9/14/21; 4/21 QS -49% vs. S&P +8% 1/21 NVRO -27% vs. S&P +19% 12/19 ALLK -19% vs. S&P +39% 12/18 AXGN -42% vs. S&P +75% 8/18 FANH -50% vs. S&P +55%

September 14th 2021

5 Retweets182 Likes
Twitter avatar for @LSValueLong Short Value @LSValue
Can’t find anything good anyone says about $BLI products. Either it’s too expensive, doesn’t work well, the TAM is really small, or it’s gonna be obsolete in a few years. I’m short.

Long Short Value @LSValue

Anyone have any confirming or otherwise first person / customer research that verifies / disputes the claims @ScorpionFund has made about $BLI product not working. Please DM me, I’d love to hear.

September 16th 2021

1 Retweet16 Likes
Twitter avatar for @Post_MarketPost M. @Post_Market
This $SOVO IPO is laughably bad. Pasta sauce, frozen pizza, pancake mix and yogurt. Its a sub-scale and bad version of ConAgra asking for a >20x EBITDA off of numbers that benefited massively from grocery channel. Please do better.
Image

September 14th 2021

8 Retweets174 Likes
Twitter avatar for @Post_MarketPost M. @Post_Market
$ONON and it’s $600m in sales worth more than UnderArmour and its $5.5b in sales. $10b valuations ain’t nothing these days This market is so good.

September 15th 2021

6 Retweets146 Likes
Twitter avatar for @IcebergResearIceberg Research @IcebergResear
We have increased our short exposure to $AMC

September 15th 2021

70 Retweets296 Likes
Twitter avatar for @RagingVenturesRaging Capital Ventures @RagingVentures
Purely from a technical view, I’m surprised that $PAR is trading so sloppy (-16%) on offering news. GS likely identified buyers in advance, probably vanillas. Demand for converts seems insatiable, and these should end up in strong hands. Maybe $PAR worth a short-term long trade.

September 14th 2021

20 Likes
Twitter avatar for @Crussian17Daniel Capital @Crussian17
$dash has to be one of the first businesses to get shorted on any improvement in covid. With everyone and their mother dashing food last yr & this ur will it really grow revs 23% next yr after the last 2 yrs and then 30% the yr after again? Color me skeptical, 70B market cap…

September 15th 2021

31 Likes
Twitter avatar for @realEstateTrentStripMallGuy @realEstateTrent
Drycleaners, their devastating impact on our communities that nobody talks about, and a solution - a thread 🧵👇 As a strip mall owner, I've dealt with this issue for 15 years, and I'd like to address it here. Hope this gets Retweeted so we save lives! Since the 1930s, the

September 14th 2021

201 Retweets1,051 Likes
Twitter avatar for @kevg1412Kevin G. @kevg1412
It continues to boggle my mind that every billionaire I’ve cold-emailed has responded in <10 minutes when my friends take more than a week and only do so after I’ve tripled texted them or venmoed them…

September 13th 2021

89 Retweets2,020 Likes

Until next week,

The Bear Cave

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