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The Bear Cave #149

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The Bear Cave #149

New Activist Reports, Recent Resignations, and Tweets of the Week

Edwin Dorsey
Dec 25, 2022
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The Bear Cave #149

thebearcave.substack.com

Welcome to The Bear Cave! Our last premium articles were “Problems at Silvergate Capital (SI)” published on December 1 and “Problems at Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)” published on December 15. The next premium investigation comes out Thursday, January 5.

New Activist Reports

There were no new activist reports this week.

Recent Resignations

Notable executive departures disclosed in the past week include:

  1. CEO of STAAR Surgical (NASDAQ: STAA — $2.33 billion) “elected to retire” after nearly eight years. The Bear Cave previously criticized the company for its dubious Chinese distributor relationship, changes to its revenue recognition policy, and SEC comment letters on the company’s Swiss defined benefit plan, its lack of loss contingency accrual for litigation, and its sales to a distributor in Syria.

  2. CEO of Provident Bancorp (NASDAQ: PVBC — $131 million) “separated in a mutual decision” after nine and a half years. Last month, The Bear Cave published on the bank and highlighted its aggressive pivot to the crypto industry including loans to crypto miners and reliance on “digital asset customer deposits.”

  3. Jose Manuel Entrecanales, board member of Eve Holding Inc (NYSE: EVEX — $1.98 billion), resigned “effective immediately” after about seven months. The company is down ~25% since its May 2022 SPAC merger.

  4. Dr. Michelle Gourdine, board member of Agilon Health (NYSE: AGL — $6.70 billion), resigned after two years. In August, another board member resigned after about five years. In May, the company’s Chief Accounting Officer resigned after three and a half years “to pursue another career opportunity” and in February the company’s Chief Innovation Officer and Chief Business Officer both resigned after a little over one year “to pursue another career opportunity.” Two weeks ago, Citron Research published on Agilon Health and highlighted headwinds from a recent Supreme Court decision on Medicare overpayments. The company is down ~45% since its April 2021 IPO.

  5. General counsel of ProPetro Holding Corp (NYSE: PUMP — $1.18 billion) resigned after about three years. The company has had three different CEOs and three different CFOs over the last five years and was previously accused of self-dealing and undisclosed related-party transactions by Culper Research.

  6. Chief Risk Officer of Banc of California (NYSE: BANC — $932 million) retired after three and a half years.

Data for this section is provided by VerityData from VerityPlatform.com

What to Read

“CFPB Orders Wells Fargo to Pay $3.7 Billion for Widespread Mismanagement of Auto Loans, Mortgages, and Deposit Accounts” (CFPB)

“Company repeatedly misapplied loan payments, wrongfully foreclosed on homes and illegally repossessed vehicles, incorrectly assessed fees and interest, charged surprise overdraft fees, along with other illegal activity affecting over 16 million consumer accounts…”

“Palantir’s SPAC Bets Backfire, Hitting Company’s Growth” (WSJ)

“Palantir had a typical game plan for its SPAC portfolio. It agreed to invest between $10 million and $40 million. In turn, the startup committed to a multiyear contract of a similar or higher dollar value. The arrangement gave Palantir more than $700 million in total contracts.”

“Oatly, Other Deflated IPO Stocks Haunt New-Issue Market” (WSJ)

“When Oatly made its splashy stock-market debut in the spring of 2021, the Swedish company commanded a roughly $10 billion valuation. Investors scooped up the shares, excited about its socially conscious pitch—that consuming oat milk results in less greenhouse-gas emissions as compared with cow’s milk. But Oatly has struggled to build and operate factories in the U.S. and was forced to slash sales forecasts as it failed to meet demand and lost market share. Its stock now trades around $1.30 a share…”

Tweets of the Week

Twitter avatar for @RagingVentures
Raging Capital Ventures @RagingVentures
$NXST shares have held up super well, despite the biz being exposed to degradation in both linear TV subscriber counts and advertising markets. Seems like an interesting short setup going into a non-election recession year…
8:56 PM ∙ Dec 23, 2022
9Likes1Retweet
Twitter avatar for @surftheyieldcrv
Yield Curve Surfer @surftheyieldcrv
$VICI's growth unsettles me. Maybe I'm wrong but 100% credit exposure to CZR through Vegas and A-tier regional casino master leases seems preferable to diversification.
1:33 AM ∙ Dec 23, 2022
Twitter avatar for @Craig_McDermott
Craig MCDermott @Craig_McDermott
$AVO is a good example of "if it sounds like a stupid business and you don't get the explanation on the first try it's a short"
1:19 AM ∙ Dec 23, 2022
Twitter avatar for @WaltHudson
Duck Hudson @WaltHudson
seems a little crazy but does $OLPX just become a microcap now? What's the pitch now? K18 has them completely encircled now and sylists are bailing on the brand. Is it crazy to think sales are -10% (or much worse) instead of the +4 sellside calling for? Maybe advent saves it?
8:14 PM ∙ Dec 22, 2022
Twitter avatar for @Keubiko
Keubiko @Keubiko
$RCL co-founder sure getting his dump on. Save some bids for the rest of us.
Image
5:05 PM ∙ Dec 21, 2022
76Likes5Retweets
Twitter avatar for @WallStCynic
Diogenes @WallStCynic
If you are interested in the $PLTR SPAC “round-tripping” allegations, you should review the Dot.com Era history of Lucent Ventures.
3:56 PM ∙ Dec 20, 2022
76Likes2Retweets
Twitter avatar for @winsteadscap
Steads @winsteadscap
$USPH insiders 19x forward EBITDA, 29x forward EPS.
Image
5:27 PM ∙ Dec 19, 2022
Twitter avatar for @winsteadscap
Steads @winsteadscap
So to recap the $XPO transition (now $XPO $RXO $GXO) "There are significant synergies between the segments" "The market isn't valuing us appropriately on a SOTP" "We'll get a higher multiple if we break this up" "The businesses actually are better of independent" Market:
Sesame Street Grover GIF
7:55 PM ∙ Dec 22, 2022
14Likes1Retweet
Twitter avatar for @SwitchCost
Hidden Monopolies @SwitchCost
Pro tip: When researching a company, try this in Google: [COMPANY NAME] filetype:pdf site:.gov You will be suprised what kind of docs you will find !
10:48 PM ∙ Dec 21, 2022
5,331Likes737Retweets
Twitter avatar for @ParikPatelCFA
Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. @ParikPatelCFA
Free alpha idea Reserve tables at restaurants using different email addresses and don’t turn up. Then short the stock when they miss earnings This is called activist investing
2:02 PM ∙ Dec 16, 2022
3,326Likes185Retweets
Twitter avatar for @ParikPatelCFA
Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. @ParikPatelCFA
Short sellers watching the stock market go down
Image
3:17 PM ∙ Dec 22, 2022
3,117Likes205Retweets

Happy holidays,

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